| MODEL | HORIZON | N | 95% HIT | 68% HIT | DIRECTION | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HESTON | 30d | 5 | 60.0% | 60.0% | 20.0% | 45.17% |
| MERTON | 30d | 4 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 55.75% |
| GARCH | 30d | 79 | 69.6% | 63.3% | 24.1% | 45.14% |
| SYMBOL | MODEL | HORIZON | ENTRY | PREDICTED | 95% RANGE | ACTUAL | STATUS | ERROR | DATE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMC | HESTON | 90d | $5.20 | $5.00 | $1.21–$13.79 | — | — | 4/28/2026 | |
| TMC | HESTON | 60d | $5.20 | $5.11 | $1.75–$11.82 | — | — | 4/28/2026 | |
| TMC | HESTON | 30d | $5.20 | $5.13 | $2.55–$9.36 | — | — | 4/28/2026 | |
| TMC | MERTON | 60d | $5.20 | $6.96 | $2.07–$17.83 | — | — | 4/28/2026 | |
| TMC | MERTON | 30d | $5.20 | $6.04 | $2.69–$11.96 | — | — | 4/28/2026 | |
| TMC | MERTON | 90d | $5.20 | $8.08 | $1.72–$23.70 | — | — | 4/28/2026 | |
| TMC | GARCH | 30d | $5.20 | $4.94 | $2.30–$10.63 | — | — | 4/28/2026 | |
| TMC | GARCH | 90d | $5.20 | $4.46 | $0.82–$24.39 | — | — | 4/28/2026 | |
| TMC | GARCH | 60d | $5.20 | $4.69 | $1.34–$16.46 | — | — | 4/28/2026 | |
| TMC | GARCH | 90d | $5.20 | $4.46 | $0.82–$24.39 | — | — | 4/28/2026 | |
| TMC | GARCH | 30d | $5.20 | $4.94 | $2.30–$10.63 | — | — | 4/28/2026 | |
| TMC | GARCH | 60d | $5.20 | $4.69 | $1.34–$16.46 | — | — | 4/28/2026 | |
| OKLO | GARCH | 60d | $75.93 | $76.60 | $26.21–$223.86 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| OKLO | GARCH | 90d | $75.93 | $76.94 | $21.27–$278.26 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| OKLO | GARCH | 30d | $75.93 | $76.27 | $35.13–$165.55 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVTS | GARCH | 90d | $18.30 | $17.96 | $4.42–$72.96 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVTS | GARCH | 60d | $18.30 | $18.07 | $5.73–$56.99 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVTS | GARCH | 30d | $18.30 | $18.19 | $8.05–$41.09 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVTS | GARCH | 90d | $18.30 | $17.96 | $4.42–$72.96 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVTS | GARCH | 60d | $18.30 | $18.07 | $5.73–$56.99 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVTS | GARCH | 30d | $18.30 | $18.19 | $8.05–$41.09 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVTS | GARCH | 60d | $18.30 | $18.07 | $5.73–$56.99 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVTS | GARCH | 90d | $18.30 | $17.96 | $4.42–$72.96 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVTS | GARCH | 30d | $18.30 | $18.19 | $8.05–$41.09 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVDA | GARCH | 30d | $216.61 | $235.90 | $171.67–$324.15 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVDA | GARCH | 90d | $216.61 | $279.78 | $156.43–$500.37 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVDA | GARCH | 60d | $216.61 | $256.90 | $161.27–$409.25 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVDA | GARCH | 90d | $216.61 | $279.78 | $156.43–$500.37 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVDA | GARCH | 30d | $216.61 | $235.90 | $171.67–$324.15 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVDA | GARCH | 60d | $216.61 | $256.90 | $161.27–$409.25 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVDA | GARCH | 90d | $216.61 | $279.78 | $156.43–$500.37 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVDA | GARCH | 60d | $216.61 | $256.90 | $161.27–$409.25 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVDA | GARCH | 30d | $216.61 | $235.90 | $171.67–$324.15 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| UVXY | GARCH | 60d | $37.87 | $27.93 | $10.78–$72.38 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| UVXY | GARCH | 90d | $37.87 | $23.98 | $7.42–$77.54 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| UVXY | GARCH | 30d | $37.87 | $32.52 | $16.79–$62.97 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| SI | GARCH | 60d | $75.42 | $77.21 | $52.47–$113.60 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| SI | GARCH | 90d | $75.42 | $78.12 | $49.41–$123.50 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| SI | GARCH | 30d | $75.42 | $76.31 | $57.33–$101.57 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| SI | GARCH | 60d | $75.42 | $255.61 | $161.17–$405.37 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| SI | GARCH | 30d | $75.42 | $234.80 | $171.63–$321.22 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| SI | GARCH | 90d | $75.42 | $278.26 | $156.24–$495.55 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVDA | GARCH | 30d | $215.70 | $234.80 | $171.63–$321.22 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVDA | GARCH | 60d | $215.70 | $255.61 | $161.17–$405.37 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVDA | GARCH | 90d | $215.70 | $278.26 | $156.24–$495.55 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVDA | GARCH | 30d | $215.70 | $234.80 | $171.63–$321.22 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVDA | GARCH | 90d | $215.70 | $278.26 | $156.24–$495.55 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| NVDA | GARCH | 60d | $215.70 | $255.61 | $161.17–$405.37 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| TLT | GARCH | 30d | $86.31 | $85.63 | $80.13–$91.52 | — | — | 4/27/2026 | |
| TLT | GARCH | 60d | $86.31 | $84.96 | $77.29–$93.40 | — | — | 4/27/2026 |
1. Every time you run a GARCH, Heston, or Merton cone model, the predicted ranges (mean, 68%, 95%) at 30/60/90 day horizons are automatically logged.
2. After the prediction horizon matures (e.g., 30 days later), click "EVALUATE" to fetch the actual price and compare against the predicted ranges.
3. A well-calibrated model should have ~95% of actual prices falling within the 95% band, and ~68% within the 68% band.
4. Directional accuracy measures whether the model correctly predicted the direction of price movement (up or down from entry).
5. MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) measures the average magnitude of prediction errors relative to the entry price.