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MODEL ACCURACY TRACKING

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No evaluated predictions yet. Run GARCH, Heston, or Merton models on any asset, then wait for the prediction horizon to mature (30/60/90 days).
Predictions are auto-logged when you run cone models. 246 predictions pending evaluation.

BAND HIT RATES BY MODEL & HORIZON

No calibration data available yet

RECENT PREDICTIONS (50)

SYMBOLMODELHORIZONENTRYPREDICTED95% RANGEACTUALSTATUSERRORDATE
BTCHESTON90d$71841.96$72969.89$38974.93–$123393.203/13/2026
BTCMERTON60d$71841.96$72176.50$43766.10–$111265.343/13/2026
BTCGARCH90d$71841.96$77435.09$44505.83–$134728.293/13/2026
BTCMERTON90d$71841.96$72427.26$39035.10–$121267.823/13/2026
BTCMERTON30d$71841.96$71915.00$50983.83–$97382.413/13/2026
BTCGARCH30d$71841.96$73659.95$54197.59–$100111.243/13/2026
BTCHESTON30d$71841.96$72221.45$51235.06–$98907.623/13/2026
BTCGARCH60d$71841.96$75523.93$48360.42–$117944.913/13/2026
BTCHESTON60d$71841.96$72796.37$44623.42–$112258.733/13/2026
BTCGARCH30d$71841.96$73659.95$54197.59–$100111.243/13/2026
BTCGARCH90d$71841.96$77435.09$44505.83–$134728.293/13/2026
BTCGARCH60d$71841.96$75523.93$48360.42–$117944.913/13/2026
BTCGARCH60d$71841.96$97.56$52.82–$180.193/13/2026
BTCGARCH30d$71841.96$96.69$58.86–$158.843/13/2026
BTCGARCH90d$71841.96$98.43$49.52–$195.653/13/2026
CLGARCH60d$95.86$97.56$52.82–$180.193/13/2026
CLGARCH90d$95.86$98.43$49.52–$195.653/13/2026
CLGARCH30d$95.86$96.69$58.86–$158.843/13/2026
CLGARCH90d$72935.00$78209.01$44639.67–$137022.723/13/2026
CLGARCH60d$72935.00$76270.84$48456.34–$120051.203/13/2026
CLGARCH30d$72935.00$74380.70$54266.42–$101950.513/13/2026
BTCGARCH60d$72935.00$76270.84$48456.34–$120051.203/13/2026
BTCGARCH90d$72935.00$78209.01$44639.67–$137022.723/13/2026
BTCGARCH30d$72935.00$74380.70$54266.42–$101950.513/13/2026
BTCGARCH90d$72935.00$79258.68$44619.01–$140790.633/13/2026
BTCGARCH60d$72935.00$77285.25$48346.61–$123545.573/13/2026
BTCGARCH30d$72935.00$75360.95$54087.44–$105001.713/13/2026
BTCHESTON90d$73484.57$74728.53$39440.63–$127417.453/13/2026
BTCHESTON30d$73484.57$73903.45$52001.56–$101987.623/13/2026
BTCHESTON60d$73484.57$74525.00$45250.87–$115815.533/13/2026
BTCMERTON90d$73484.57$74168.67$39961.56–$124208.413/13/2026
BTCMERTON60d$73484.57$73883.48$44796.86–$113902.803/13/2026
BTCMERTON30d$73484.57$73587.41$52160.22–$99653.073/13/2026
BTCGARCH30d$73484.57$75360.95$54087.44–$105001.713/13/2026
BTCGARCH60d$73484.57$77285.25$48346.61–$123545.573/13/2026
BTCGARCH90d$73484.57$79258.68$44619.01–$140790.633/13/2026
CLGARCH30d$95.30$96.63$58.82–$158.743/13/2026
CLGARCH60d$95.30$97.50$52.78–$180.083/13/2026
CLGARCH90d$95.30$98.37$49.49–$195.523/13/2026
CLGARCH30d$95.30$121.00$73.64–$198.833/13/2026
CLGARCH60d$95.30$123.67$68.02–$224.863/13/2026
CLGARCH90d$95.30$126.40$65.29–$244.733/13/2026
USOGARCH30d$118.39$121.00$73.64–$198.833/13/2026
USOGARCH90d$118.39$126.40$65.29–$244.733/13/2026
USOGARCH60d$118.39$123.67$68.02–$224.863/13/2026
USOGARCH60d$87.95$97.50$52.78–$180.083/13/2026
USOGARCH90d$87.95$98.37$49.49–$195.523/13/2026
USOGARCH30d$87.95$96.63$58.82–$158.743/13/2026
CLGARCH30d$87.95$96.63$58.82–$158.743/13/2026
CLGARCH60d$87.95$97.50$52.78–$180.083/13/2026

HOW IT WORKS

1. Every time you run a GARCH, Heston, or Merton cone model, the predicted ranges (mean, 68%, 95%) at 30/60/90 day horizons are automatically logged.

2. After the prediction horizon matures (e.g., 30 days later), click "EVALUATE" to fetch the actual price and compare against the predicted ranges.

3. A well-calibrated model should have ~95% of actual prices falling within the 95% band, and ~68% within the 68% band.

4. Directional accuracy measures whether the model correctly predicted the direction of price movement (up or down from entry).

5. MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) measures the average magnitude of prediction errors relative to the entry price.