PREDICTION ACCURACY

Track how bubble and crash predictions compare to actual outcomes

128
Total Predictions
29
Evaluated
99
Pending
79%
Direction Accuracy
39
Calibration Score
RAW METRICS
Direction Accuracy
79%
23/29
Within 10% Band
3%
1/29
Within 20% Band
21%
6/29
Mean % Error
16657.9%
CONFIDENCE-WEIGHTED
Weighted Direction
82%
↑ vs raw 79%
Weighted 10% Band
3%
= vs raw 3%
Weighted 20% Band
18%
↓ vs raw 21%
Calibration Score
39/100
40% dir + 30% 20% + 30% 10%
TIME-DECAY WEIGHTED
Decay Direction
82%
↑ vs raw 79%
Decay 10% Band
3%
= vs raw 3%
Decay 20% Band
18%
↓ vs raw 21%
Decay Calibration
39/100
Half-life: 90d
ACCURACY TREND (ROLLING 10-PREDICTION WINDOW)
CONFIDENCE CALIBRATION ANALYSIS

Compares predicted confidence levels against actual direction hit rates. Points above the diagonal indicate overperformance; below indicates overconfidence.

BUBBLE TOP PREDICTIONS
Total71
Evaluated23
Direction Accuracy100%
Weighted Direction100%
Within 10%0%
Weighted 10%0%
Within 20%0%
Mean % Error21000.0%
CRASH BOTTOM PREDICTIONS
Total57
Evaluated6
Direction Accuracy0%
Weighted Direction0%
Within 10%17%
Weighted 10%18%
Within 20%100%
Mean % Error13.3%
RECENT PREDICTIONS (50)
DateSymbolTypePrice ThenPredictedTarget DateConfR²StatusActualResult
Apr 17, 2026MATURITY-TESTTOP$450.00$500.002026-04-1050%0.80PENDING——
Apr 17, 2026ETH-TEST-ACCTOP$3,500$5,0002026-08-0140%0.78PENDING——
Apr 17, 2026BTC-TEST-ACCBOTTOM$80,000$65,0002026-06-0155%0.90PENDING——
Apr 17, 2026BTC-TEST-ACCTOP$100,000$150,0002026-07-1565%0.85PENDING——
Apr 16, 2026BTCBOTTOM$74,024$65,1172026-04-2539%0.82PENDING——
Apr 16, 2026BTCBOTTOM$74,024$65,1172026-04-2539%0.82PENDING——
Apr 16, 2026MATURITY-TESTTOP$450.00$500.002026-04-1050%0.80EVALUATED$95,000
✓ Dir21000.0% err
Apr 16, 2026ETH-TEST-ACCTOP$3,500$5,0002026-08-0140%0.78PENDING——
Apr 16, 2026BTC-TEST-ACCBOTTOM$80,000$65,0002026-06-0155%0.90PENDING——
Apr 16, 2026BTC-TEST-ACCTOP$100,000$150,0002026-07-1565%0.85PENDING——
Apr 16, 2026MATURITY-TESTTOP$450.00$500.002026-04-1050%0.80EVALUATED$95,000
✓ Dir21000.0% err
Apr 16, 2026ETH-TEST-ACCTOP$3,500$5,0002026-08-0140%0.78PENDING——
Apr 16, 2026BTC-TEST-ACCBOTTOM$80,000$65,0002026-06-0155%0.90PENDING——
Apr 16, 2026BTC-TEST-ACCTOP$100,000$150,0002026-07-1565%0.85PENDING——
Apr 16, 2026MATURITY-TESTTOP$450.00$500.002026-04-1050%0.80EVALUATED$95,000
✓ Dir21000.0% err
Apr 16, 2026ETH-TEST-ACCTOP$3,500$5,0002026-08-0140%0.78PENDING——
Apr 16, 2026BTC-TEST-ACCBOTTOM$80,000$65,0002026-06-0155%0.90PENDING——
Apr 16, 2026BTC-TEST-ACCTOP$100,000$150,0002026-07-1565%0.85PENDING——
Apr 16, 2026SIBOTTOM$79.32$70.302026-04-1838%0.66PENDING——
Apr 16, 2026MATURITY-TESTTOP$450.00$500.002026-04-1050%0.80EVALUATED$95,000
✓ Dir21000.0% err
Apr 16, 2026ETH-TEST-ACCTOP$3,500$5,0002026-08-0140%0.78PENDING——
Apr 16, 2026BTC-TEST-ACCBOTTOM$80,000$65,0002026-06-0155%0.90PENDING——
Apr 16, 2026BTC-TEST-ACCTOP$100,000$150,0002026-07-1565%0.85PENDING——
Apr 16, 2026MATURITY-TESTTOP$450.00$500.002026-04-1050%0.80EVALUATED$95,000
✓ Dir21000.0% err
Apr 16, 2026ETH-TEST-ACCTOP$3,500$5,0002026-08-0140%0.78PENDING——
Apr 16, 2026BTC-TEST-ACCBOTTOM$80,000$65,0002026-06-0155%0.90PENDING——
Apr 16, 2026BTC-TEST-ACCTOP$100,000$150,0002026-07-1565%0.85PENDING——
Apr 16, 2026BTC-TEST-ACCTOP$100,000$150,0002026-07-1565%0.85PENDING——
Apr 16, 2026ETH-TEST-ACCTOP$3,500$5,0002026-08-0140%0.78PENDING——
Apr 16, 2026BTC-TEST-ACCBOTTOM$80,000$65,0002026-06-0155%0.90PENDING——
Apr 16, 2026MATURITY-TESTTOP$450.00$500.002026-04-1050%0.80EVALUATED$95,000
✓ Dir21000.0% err
Apr 15, 2026NQBOTTOM$26,320$24,1702026-05-0341%0.37PENDING——
Apr 15, 2026NKEBOTTOM$45.67$44.122026-05-1070%0.91PENDING——
Apr 15, 2026TTDBOTTOM$22.25$19.142026-10-1354%0.62PENDING——
Apr 15, 2026TTDBOTTOM$22.25$19.142026-10-1354%0.62PENDING——
Apr 15, 2026NQBOTTOM$26,220$24,1432026-05-0341%0.38PENDING——
Apr 15, 2026NQBOTTOM$26,220$24,1432026-05-0341%0.38PENDING——
Apr 15, 2026CLBOTTOM$90.63$63.152026-08-1269%0.54PENDING——
Apr 14, 2026NKEBOTTOM$43.69$34.492026-04-1848%0.96PENDING——
Apr 14, 2026NQBOTTOM$25,954$23,9782026-05-0242%0.48PENDING——
Apr 14, 2026CLBOTTOM$92.58$63.212026-08-1565%0.54PENDING——
Apr 14, 2026CLBOTTOM$92.58$63.212026-08-1565%0.54PENDING——
Apr 14, 2026CLBOTTOM$92.58$63.212026-08-1565%0.54PENDING——
Apr 14, 2026CLBOTTOM$92.58$63.212026-08-1565%0.54PENDING——
Apr 14, 2026SIBOTTOM$79.36$69.572026-04-1539%0.68PENDING——
Apr 11, 2026MATURITY-TESTTOP$450.00$500.002026-04-1050%0.80EVALUATED$95,000
✓ Dir21000.0% err
Apr 11, 2026ETH-TEST-ACCTOP$3,500$5,0002026-08-0140%0.78PENDING——
Apr 11, 2026BTC-TEST-ACCBOTTOM$80,000$65,0002026-06-0155%0.90PENDING——
Apr 11, 2026BTC-TEST-ACCTOP$100,000$150,0002026-07-1565%0.85PENDING——
Apr 11, 2026MATURITY-TESTTOP$450.00$500.002026-04-1050%0.80EVALUATED$95,000
✓ Dir21000.0% err
SCHEDULED EVALUATION JOB
StatusACTIVE
Last RunApr 18, 2026
Last Result0 evaluated
Next RunApr 19, 2026
METHODOLOGY

Predictions are automatically recorded when you run Bubble Detection or Bottom Risk Score analysis.

Predictions mature 7 days after the predicted target date and are evaluated by comparing predicted vs actual price.

Direction Accuracy: Did price move in the predicted direction?

Price Band: Was the actual price within 10% or 20% of the predicted price?

Confidence-Weighted: Higher-confidence predictions carry more weight in accuracy calculations.

Calibration Score: Composite metric: 40% weighted direction + 30% weighted 20% band + 30% weighted 10% band.