Compare accuracy across all model components to identify the most reliable signals
Total Evaluated
228
88 cone + 140 direction
Cone Dir. Accuracy
22.7%
88 predictions
Direction Hit Rate
57.1%
140 predictions
Composite Records
156
6 sub-methods
Model Directional Accuracy Rankings
#
Model
Category
Evaluated
Hit Rate
Confidence
1
Direction Forecast
DIRECTION
140
57%
9.1%
2
GARCH Cone
CONE
79
24%
—
3
HESTON Cone
CONE
5
20%
—
4
MERTON Cone
CONE
4
0%
—
Accuracy by Asset Type
GARCH Cone
crypto
7%
futures
29%
stock
22%
HESTON Cone
crypto
0%
stock
100%
futures
0%
MERTON Cone
crypto
0%
futures
0%
Direction Forecast
crypto
57%
stock
29%
futures
59%
Direction Forecast by Regime
low vol
57%
80/140 correct
Avg confidence: 9.1%
Model accuracy is tracked automatically as predictions mature. Cone models are evaluated at 30/60/90-day horizons. Direction forecasts are evaluated at their respective timeframe (daily/weekly/monthly).